The short story is that cigarette consumption appears to be trending down while cigarette tax revenue appears to be on track.
Everyone’s happy, right?
Mississippi has collected $36.8 million from the 50-cent cigarette tax increase that went into effect in May, according to data from the State Tax Commission. The state collected $4.7 million less than expected from raising taxes on stamped cigarettes waiting to be sold when the tax hike took effect.
But tax collections on cigarette stamps in July, the first month of the current fiscal year, totaled $9.2 million, which is fairly close to expectations. The tax hike from 18 to 68 cents per pack is expected to generate nearly $113 million this fiscal year.
Those results are bringing smiles from two groups – state legislators who need new revenues to balance the state budget in a tight economy and health-care advocates hoping that higher prices will prompt smokers to quit.
Smokers appear to be cutting back, at least for now. Health care advocates are hoping to eventually reap long-term results from the state’s first tobacco tax increase since 1985.
After years of opposition from Gov. Haley Barbour, the Legislature took recommendations from Barbour’s Tax Study Commission in crafting the tax hike.
In addition to the state’s cigarette excise tax hike of 50 cents per pack, the state on July 1 added another 25 cents a pack to cheaper cigarettes made by companies that didn’t participate in Mississippi’s 1997 settlement of a lawsuit against big tobacco companies.
The larger payoff to Mississippi taxpayers should come in the long haul. If cigarette consumption indeed continues to decrease because of higher retail prices attributed to the tax hikes, taxpayers should see a reduction in public health care spending for tobacco-related illnesses.
One wild card is the impact of the federal cigarette tax increase on consumption at the same time as Mississippi increased state smoke taxes. The federal government in April raised the cigarette tax from 39 cents a pack to $1.01 a pack to help fund a children’s health insurance program and boost efforts to curb smoking.
The combined impact of higher federal and state cigarette taxes could cause consumption – and tax revenue – to decline faster than Mississippi lawmakers had anticipated. That, in turn, could lead to higher taxes in other areas.
But reduced cigarette consumption should ultimately make that problem level out based on public health care cost reductions. For public health care advocates, less cigarettes tax revenue would be an excellent problem to have because they believe the state can more than recoup any loss in health care costs savings. That would be healthier for everybody.