
Japan’s consumer prices fell for a 20th month in October, with declines moderating after the government raised tobacco taxes. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.6 percent from a year earlier after dropping 1.1 percent in September, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The government’s Oct. 1 tax increase, which boosted the cost of cigarettes by a third, added 0.28 percentage point to the figure, the bureau said.
Entrenched deflation is weighing on an economy at risk of contracting this quarter after a climb in the yen to a 15-year high undermined export growth. The currency’s 11 percent advance against the dollar this year has also exacerbated price declines by lowering import costs, adding to the case for the Bank of Japan to provide more monetary stimulus.
“Deflationary pressures have been easing slightly but it’s unclear whether that trend is sustainable,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, a senior economist at Itochu Corp. in Tokyo. “The economy will probably shrink this quarter and the strong yen is also going to start pushing down prices.”
October’s price drop matched the median forecast of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. An increase in insurance fees also pushed the index up by 0.15 percentage point, the bureau said.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond rose two basis points to 1.175 percent at the morning close in Tokyo, the highest since Sept. 7.
Persistent Pressure
“There’s still a huge amount of slack in the economy, which is persistently exercising downward pressure on prices,” even though the drops have eased, Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo, said before the report. “It’s hard to predict when prices will turn positive,” he said, predicting that gross domestic product will shrink this quarter.
Pressure for the BOJ to do more to fight deflation has grown, with both ruling and opposition lawmakers calling for legislation that would give politicians more control over monetary policy.
A group of lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Party of Japan said this week the bank should adopt an inflation target to eradicate price declines and help bolster employment. The members also want to revise a law that guarantees the central bank’s independence. Your Party, an opposition group, last week submitted a bill to the parliament, calling for a revision that would incorporate a target.
Political Pressure
“Although the chance for an actual revision of the law is slim, politicians’ actions of debating the issue alone would have some influence on monetary policy,” said Naomi Hasegawa, a senior fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo.
BOJ policy makers last month forecast core prices, which exclude fresh food, will start to rise in the year starting April 2011. The bank last month pledged to maintain ”virtually zero” interest rates until an outlook emerges for sustained price increases. Board members say they consider inflation stable in a positive range of up to 2 percent, with their median estimate at 1 percent.
Falling prices undermine an economy by eroding corporate earnings, putting pressure on wages, and making debts harder to pay off. Deflation has afflicted Japan for more than a decade, contributing to its being surpassed by China in the second quarter as the world’s second-largest economy, after the U.S.
A separate government report today showed Japan’s land values fell at 87 of 150 prime locations throughout the country, or 58 percent of monitored sites, compared with 70 percent three months earlier.
Yen’s Advance
Some board members said falling prices may damp long-term inflation expectations of companies and households, minutes of the bank’s Oct. 28 meeting showed this month. The yen’s advance lowers prices by making imports cheaper and that dynamic ”warrants caution,” Seiji Nakamura, a BOJ board member, said in a speech yesterday.
Seiyu Ltd., a supermarket operator owned by U.S.-based Wal- Mart Stores Inc., this week began discounting 3,200 items including food, clothing and household goods by as much as 60 percent. Daiei Inc., another supermarket operator, is also cutting prices of household goods by as much as 25 percent.
A revision of the base year to calculate consumer prices scheduled for August 2011 will also likely lower Japanese price data. The last government revision pushed down prices by about 0.5 percentage point.
”Consumer price data will probably be depressed by the next year’s revision more than last time,” BNP Paribas economists Ryutaro Kono and Azusa Kato wrote in a report. ”The BOJ’s exit from its virtual zero-rate policy seems considerably far away.”